What I'm Doing About Our $1,800 Flights to Japan (and What I'd Tell a Client in the Same Spot)
A year ago, my husband and I made a decision about our son. No birthday parties. No mountain of toys, 3 vendors and a $1500 balloon arch. We'd take him places instead. Trips, culture, memories, the kind of investment that compounds in a different currency, that's the priority.
The first big trip on the list was Japan, January 2027 with my parents and in-laws. A multigenerational, slow-paced exploration of a country we'd been wanting to share with our son since before he was born. I was watching airfare every month, casually, the way you do when you're more than a year out and not in a rush. Round trip in coach: about $568 a person. Totally doable and actually way cheaper than I was expecting.
Last month I checked again. $1,770.
That's not a typo. The same flights I'd been quietly tracking had tripled. And there I was, holding a calendar with January 2027 circled, mouth on the floor, six plane tickets to Tokyo to purchase, and a decision to make.
I'm a travel advisor and I'm also a mom. The last few weeks have been an unusually transparent reminder that those two roles run on the same set of mechanics. The same trade-offs, the same questions, the same honest math. So this post is the raw and honest inside view. What I'm actually weighing for our family. What I'd tell a client sitting across from me with the same problem. And what travel advisors actually do that points and Google can't.
What's Actually Happening
A quick orientation, because the headlines have been alarmist enough that you don't need a full recap from me, just the highlights.
The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated at the end of February closed the Strait of Hormuz and global airfare has been climbing ever since. International economy is up roughly 24% year over year. United has trimmed its planned schedule by 5%. Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa just absorbed their second consecutive monthly fuel-price hike. Lightly stated, it's been chaos.
Roughly 25 to 30% of global jet fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz. None has moved through the strait since late February. Europe is the most exposed region, with the IEA warning of supply running dry within weeks; even if the strait reopened today, fuel shipments would take about two months to reach Europe. Airlines on every continent are absorbing successive fuel-price hikes and either passing them through to fares or trimming routes to manage the squeeze.
Another stress point: only about 10% of every barrel of crude becomes jet fuel, while 45% becomes gasoline and 25-30% becomes diesel. So when crude supply tightens globally, jet fuel feels it disproportionately. That's why airfare is climbing faster than gas at the pump.
This isn't unprecedented. The 1990 Gulf War triggered a similar geopolitical supply shock, oil prices jumped 75% in two months, panic was the loudest voice in the room, and within four months other producers had quietly offset most of the lost supply. Even still, the whole disruption took about nine months to be resolved. Past performance doesn't guarantee future timing, but it does tell us this kind of crisis has a precedent and a pattern.
What it doesn't tell us is whether your particular trip lands in the resolution window or in the squeeze. That's the part where you have to make a real decision.
The Three Options I'm Actually Weighing
Here's where I stop being a travel advisor for a minute and start being someone with a calendar entry that says Tokyo, January 2027 — 6 tickets.
Option 1: Burn points on the flights. This works for me and my husband. Between us, we have enough flexible currency to cover business class for two on a partner airline with a fixed-award chart, which means our redemption isn't tied to cash-fare inflation. It does not work for the grandparents. They don't have a meaningful points balance, and opening a $800+ premium credit card for a sign-on bonus they'll never use again is not a thing I'd recommend to anyone, let alone my parents. Points are a tool. They are not a universal answer, and anybody who tells you otherwise is selling you something.
Option 2: Pivot the destination. Our family's stated value is "culture and memories over things." That value isn't location-specific. Japan was the version of the trip we'd imagined, but it was never the only version. A trip to Mexico, Hawaii, or somewhere closer to home delivers on the same family promise without absorbing a 3x airfare premium across six tickets. If I'm honest, this is the option that hurts a little, because we'd built up the Tokyo vision in our heads. But the trip's purpose isn't to visit Japan specifically, the trip's purpose is to take our son somewhere meaningful with the people who love him most. Multiple destinations can carry that.
Option 3: Stay the course and absorb the cost. Sometimes the right answer is the trip is worth what the trip costs. Especially for a multigenerational moment with grandparents who won't always be around to take it. There's a version of this where you book the more expensive flights, you adjust other parts of the trip to compensate (fewer nights, a less expensive hotel category, fewer activities), and you protect the irreplaceable variable, the people in the photos.
What I'd Tell a Client in the Same Spot
This is where the advisor and the mom finally agree on the same framework.
When a trip's economics shift on you mid-planning, whether it's fuel, currency, demand, or something else, the question isn't how do I get back to the original number. The question is: what was this trip actually for, and which variables can I move to protect that?
Run through them in order:
The non-negotiables. What part of this trip would make it not the trip you envisioned if you removed it? For us, it's the people, multigenerational, with our son. For an anniversary couple, it might be a specific resort. For a honeymoon, it might be a particular region. Identify what's load-bearing before you start cutting.
The flexible pieces. Destination, timing, length, transportation, hotel tier, activities… most of these have more give than people realize. A Hawaii week in April delivers most of what a Japan week in January was supposed to deliver, for two-thirds the airfare. A Bora Bora honeymoon in shoulder season delivers most of what peak-season delivers, often for 30% less. The trip's meaning rarely depends on the variable people get most attached to.
The tools you actually have. Points (with honest math, not magical thinking). Status. Flexibility on travel dates. Advisor access. Some of these meaningfully change the equation. Some of them don't. An advisor's job here is to tell you which is which for your specific trip, not to wave a wand.
When the trip economics shift, some people start with their conclusion ("we're going to Japan, period") and then try to back-fill the math to make it work. That's how people end up overspending or stressed. Sometimes the answer really is we're going to Japan in January regardless. That's a valid decision. But it should be the answer after you've run through your non-negotiables, flexible pieces and tools, not the assumption you start with.
The clients who navigate moments like this well aren't the ones with the most points or the deepest pockets. They're the ones who know what their trip is for and are willing to flex on the parts that don't carry the meaning.
What an Advisor Actually Does in a Moment Like This
I want to be honest about what I can and can't do for a client in the middle of a fuel crisis, because I'd rather under-promise than misrepresent.
What an advisor cannot do:
Get you economy flight pricing that magically resists global fuel pressure. Cash airfare is cash airfare.
Make award availability appear when an airline has cut capacity on your route.
Override fuel surcharges on programs that pass them through (British Airways, Lufthansa, Virgin, Air France, these can add $400-1,200 cash to an award ticket paid via points, and they're climbing right now).
Predict when the crisis resolves.
What an advisor can do:
Identify destinations where your dollar still works harder right now (closer-to-home routes with shorter fuel exposure, specific hubs where airline competition is keeping pricing softer).
Use advisor-rate access to claw back real money on the non-flight parts of your trip: property credits, complimentary breakfast, room upgrades, etc. These are perks that often add $500-$1,500 in real value per stay.
Help you price out Plan B in parallel with Plan A, so you're making a decision with information instead of panic.
Tell you which of your points programs actually protect you in this market and which ones don't. The honest version: most major programs are hybrids when it comes to redemption. Meaning they use fixed partner award charts but dynamic pricing for their own flights. So the program isn't really the question, the question is how you're redeeming within it. Booking a partner award on Aeroplan, Alaska, or Virgin Atlantic still gets you fixed pricing. Booking the same airline's own metal will move with cash fares. An advisor's job is knowing which lever to pull for your specific trip.
Be the person who's already done the research when you're trying to make a decision in three days, not three months.
Strategic points use is a hedge, not a magic bullet. The right program, right partner, right timing saves thousands. Wrong points play leaves you stuck. That's the difference between Googling award charts and having someone who knows the landscape.
Where We Land for Our Personal Trip
I'll be honest, as of the day I'm publishing this, we don't know yet. We're leaning toward Option 2 (pivoting the destination), with Option 3 as backup if everyone's heart is set on Japan after a real conversation. Option 1 keeps two of the six tickets covered, which makes the math on either remaining option easier.
When we decide, I'll update this post. That's the real-time version of how this kind of decision actually unfolds. It's not a clean case study or a perfectly resolved before-and-after. Just a family weighing real options against real numbers, with the same framework I'd walk a client through.
If you're in a similar spot: trip planned, costs shifted, weighing options, that's exactly the conversation I'd love to have. The Noir & Ivory design brief is a 21-question intake that takes about 10 minutes. It's where every trip I've ever planned has started.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the 2026 jet fuel crisis affecting honeymoon and travel costs?
International economy fares are up roughly 24% year-over-year, with airlines including United, Cathay Pacific, and SAS trimming routes or canceling flights to manage fuel costs. Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa absorbed two consecutive monthly fuel-price increases through May 2026. Couples planning trips for late 2026 and early 2027 are seeing the largest cost impact, particularly on long-haul routes through European or Asian hubs.
Should I book my honeymoon flights now or wait for prices to drop?
The historical precedent (1990 Gulf War oil supply shock) suggests these crises typically resolve within 6-9 months as alternate supply ramps up. But there's no guarantee your specific trip falls in the resolution window. The more useful question is whether your trip's non-flight economics are worth absorbing higher airfare. For many couples, especially those traveling closer to home, the answer is yes.
Can a travel advisor get me lower flight prices during a fuel crisis?
No. Cash airfare is cash airfare, and no advisor has access to airline pricing the public can't see. What an advisor can do is identify destinations with shorter fuel exposure, claw back $500-$1,500 in real value on hotel bookings through Virtuoso amenities, and help you price out alternate trip versions in parallel so you're making decisions with information instead of panic.
What's the difference between a travel advisor and a travel agent for honeymoons?
A travel agent books what you ask them to book. A travel advisor helps you figure out what to book, vets the options, and structures the trip around your specific priorities. For a milestone trip like a honeymoon during a volatile pricing environment, the advisor model is materially more valuable, you get judgment, not just transactions.
Is it worth opening a premium credit card just for the sign-on bonus to cover honeymoon flights?
Usually not, especially if it's a one-time use case. Premium travel cards carry annual fees in the $700-$900 range, and most sign-on bonuses make sense only if you'll get multiple years of value from the card's benefits. For travelers who don't already have a points-and-miles strategy, opening a premium card mid-crisis to "solve" a single trip is bad math.
